The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has lowered its annual housing forecasts, predicting that 305,000 homes a year will not now be delivered until 2030-31, pushed back from a previous prediction of 2029-30.
In its Economic and Fiscal Outlook, released with the chancellor’s Spring Statement, the OBR forecasted net additions to housing stock will hit a low of 220,000 in 2026-27, down from an average of 260,000 a year in the early 2020s, due to recent falls in housing starts.
While this is above the 215,000 figure OBR forecasted for 2026-27 alongside the Autumn Budget, it said the impact of the government’s planning reforms are expected to take longer to be reflected in housing development figures for 2029-30.
The OBR added that cumulative UK net additions between the current financial year and 2029-30 will total 1.3 million homes as a result of government’s reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework alone.
Adrian Plant, director of SOWN, the shared ownership division of LRG, said the announcement was “significant” because for the “first time, the government has acknowledged the ‘delivery dip’”.
He added: “Not only is it an admission that annual housing targets cannot be met, but it is a clear reminder that planning reform is not a quick fix,” he added. “The hard work of turning policy into local plans, permissions and completions takes time.”
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